It would be quite funny if Orbán lost and his party dumped him because he ran one of the worst campaigns in history. (Slogan: "We won't be a Ukrainian colony" - Really?)
The analysis is correct with all its complexities, but the more than 50% chance, that Orbán actually remains strong even if he loses is false.
Last night I saw Dr. József Kajdi the former Sate Secretaty of prime minister Jozsef Antall (an old friend of mine) on television discussing the chances of the elections. He made absolutely clear, that today influential Fidesz apparatchiks, bastions of NER will not try to defend the Orbán Castle, but run and do everything to save their own skin. 16 years of criminal activities are behind them. They have been appointed for 9 or whatever number of years. Over the years already served, they committed crimes, and if justice is done, which does not need two thirds majority, they can not stay in office for the remaining years. I see people trying to escape, instead of undermining the works of the Magyar government. Who did not commit crimes, can and must continue and serve in the new regime.
Thank you so much, Zsolt. This is a very valuable comment and a really important challenge to the most cautious part of my article. Your point is very well taken: once real defeat arrives, many inside the system may be thinking far more about saving themselves than saving Orbán. I’m going to try to find that Kajdi interview now and watch it closely.
I’ve been reading that some Orbán loyalists have already begun moving money and valuables abroad, suggesting that at least part of the regime is preparing for a different future. I really hope you are right. And my main hope above all is that those who committed crimes under the name of the state will finally face the Hungarian people and a legal system that is truly fair and free.
A campaign run on "Monster Zelensky" might fool some of the old farmers and pensioners who see only St. Viktor, but it will not fool any of the educated young people in Budapest, Debrecen and Pecs, nor any of the working people whose buying power has shriveled under Fidesz rule.
Yes, Orban has been smart, in other ways, modeling his re-organization of the REAL Deep State along the lines of Trump, Putin and the ultimate political survivor-Bibi Netanyahu.
Absolutely. Orbán’s real skill was never good government. He studied how to hollow out the state, politicise institutions, and stay in power by keeping the country in a constant state of fear and division.
The analysis is correct with all its complexities, but the more than 50% chance, that Orbán actually remains strong even if he loses is false.
Last night I saw Dr. József Kajdi the former Sate Secretaty of prime minister Jozsef Antall (we happened to work together in those years) on television discussing the chances of the elections. He made absolutely clear, that today influential Fidesz apparatchiks, bastions of NER will not try to defend the Orbán Castle, but run and do everything to save their own skin. 16 years of criminal activities are behind them. They have been appointed for 9 or whatever number of years. Over the years already served, they committed crimes, and if justice is done, which does not need two thirds majority, they can not stay in office for the remaining years. I see people trying to escape, instead of undermining the works of the Magyar government. Who did not commit crimes, can and must continue and serve in the new regime.
It would be quite funny if Orbán lost and his party dumped him because he ran one of the worst campaigns in history. (Slogan: "We won't be a Ukrainian colony" - Really?)
We’d all love to see that happen, Imre.
The analysis is correct with all its complexities, but the more than 50% chance, that Orbán actually remains strong even if he loses is false.
Last night I saw Dr. József Kajdi the former Sate Secretaty of prime minister Jozsef Antall (an old friend of mine) on television discussing the chances of the elections. He made absolutely clear, that today influential Fidesz apparatchiks, bastions of NER will not try to defend the Orbán Castle, but run and do everything to save their own skin. 16 years of criminal activities are behind them. They have been appointed for 9 or whatever number of years. Over the years already served, they committed crimes, and if justice is done, which does not need two thirds majority, they can not stay in office for the remaining years. I see people trying to escape, instead of undermining the works of the Magyar government. Who did not commit crimes, can and must continue and serve in the new regime.
Thank you so much, Zsolt. This is a very valuable comment and a really important challenge to the most cautious part of my article. Your point is very well taken: once real defeat arrives, many inside the system may be thinking far more about saving themselves than saving Orbán. I’m going to try to find that Kajdi interview now and watch it closely.
I’ve been reading that some Orbán loyalists have already begun moving money and valuables abroad, suggesting that at least part of the regime is preparing for a different future. I really hope you are right. And my main hope above all is that those who committed crimes under the name of the state will finally face the Hungarian people and a legal system that is truly fair and free.
A campaign run on "Monster Zelensky" might fool some of the old farmers and pensioners who see only St. Viktor, but it will not fool any of the educated young people in Budapest, Debrecen and Pecs, nor any of the working people whose buying power has shriveled under Fidesz rule.
Yes, Orban has been smart, in other ways, modeling his re-organization of the REAL Deep State along the lines of Trump, Putin and the ultimate political survivor-Bibi Netanyahu.
Absolutely. Orbán’s real skill was never good government. He studied how to hollow out the state, politicise institutions, and stay in power by keeping the country in a constant state of fear and division.
As always so instructive. Thank you Peter.
The analysis is correct with all its complexities, but the more than 50% chance, that Orbán actually remains strong even if he loses is false.
Last night I saw Dr. József Kajdi the former Sate Secretaty of prime minister Jozsef Antall (we happened to work together in those years) on television discussing the chances of the elections. He made absolutely clear, that today influential Fidesz apparatchiks, bastions of NER will not try to defend the Orbán Castle, but run and do everything to save their own skin. 16 years of criminal activities are behind them. They have been appointed for 9 or whatever number of years. Over the years already served, they committed crimes, and if justice is done, which does not need two thirds majority, they can not stay in office for the remaining years. I see people trying to escape, instead of undermining the works of the Magyar government. Who did not commit crimes, can and must continue and serve in the new regime.